Like those who dreamed of one day seeing the Berlin Wall torn down, one of my long-time dreams has been to see the collapse of the Iranian regime in my lifetime. The idea of the Iranian people finally overthrowing the clerical dictatorship and establishing the democracy that they should have had in 1979, is something that those of us who have supported the democracy movement in Iran have anticipated for a very long time. Though there have been many serious anti-government protests in the past, none have had the inertia that this one has, and as international pressure mounts, it’s beginning to look like the last days of Ali Khameini’s Islamist regime.

This has not been without risk. Since the protests broke out toward the end of 2025, the cold-blooded use of lethal force by the Iranian security forces has been fully deployed. While the regime claims over 2,000 have been killed, anti-regime news website Iran International estimates the murder of over 12,000, along with another 10,000 people arrested. The internet blackout has smothered the massacre, cutting Iranians off from the rest of the world, and the international community have been forced to speculate about what dystopian horrors are happening.

Israel's Boxing Day recognition of the breakaway African state of Somaliland has been followed by widespread condemnation. Despite being, in my opinion, a foreign policy masterstroke on the part of Netanyahu, it does open up an uncomfortable idea when it comes to self-determination struggles: is statehood a right or is it earned? Indeed, for many of us who are strong supporters of oppressed groups who are candidates for self-determination, the real aspect of both democracy consolidation and institution building can affect the likelihood of the state becoming independently recognized.

We've seen this pattern before many times with President Trump. First, he ramps up the pressure to the maximum; then conflict looks to break out any day; then he does a deal in the very last moment on his terms. It's a method he's already applied with North Korea, China, and Hamas to secure ends that benefit the United States while still making compromises to avoid overt action. And it looks like he's trying to do the same to oust Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro.

A New Approach?

Given the failed attempts at regime change and nation-building in both Iraq and Afghanistan, a new approach for forwarding the cause of democracy might be appealing to democratic realists (like myself). Though remaining firmly committed to the principles of democracy as a combined moral and strategic necessity against the forces of totalitarianism, we shouldn't kid ourselves into believing that advancing those principles doesn't often require direct confrontation. Action and force against tyrants are often the only route to removing them for good. We are, as Christopher Hitchens once quipped, not "looking for a quiet life for liberalism."